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12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a 7-7 record that includes a woeful 3-7 mark within the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs need a great deal of help to realize their playoff dreams.
But first, the Chiefs must help themselves.
Herm Edwards' team travels to play the struggling Oakland Raiders on Saturday night, and will look to take out the frustrations of an untimely three-game losing skid on the Silver and Black. The Chiefs have lost consecutive contests to the Browns (31-28 in overtime), Ravens (20-10), and Chargers (20-9), and have also been forced to contend with the passing of team owner Lamar Hunt, who died from complications of prostate cancer last Wednesday.
The high ground that Kansas City could once claim in the AFC Wild Card race has eroded during the troubling stretch, and anything less than a pair of wins coupled with a complete meltdown from several other Wild Card contenders over the final two weeks will not get the Chiefs their first playoff bid since 2003.
In that regard, it is a good time to be playing the Raiders.
Oakland is mired in a seven-game losing streak, the franchise's longest single-season skid since 1987, and its 2-12 record is tied with Detroit for the worst mark in the league. The Raiders enter Week 16 slightly behind the Lions in the quest for the No. 1 pick in the 2007 Draft, based on strength of schedule.
Whether Oakland picks first or second in April, offense of any kind will likely be high on the team's priority list. The Raiders haven't scored more than 14 points during their seven-game slide, and last week's 20-0 home loss to the Rams was their third shutout defeat of the season.
The Silver and Black are 2-21 in AFC West play since 2003, and have lost 13 straight division games since winning at Denver in Week 12 of the 2004 campaign.
SERIES HISTORY
Kansas City holds a 48-42-2 edge in its all-time regular season series with Oakland, which dates back to 1960. The Chiefs have won seven straight in the series, taking a 17-13 home decision in Week 11 and sweeping home-and-homes in 2003, 2004, 2005. Kansas City took a 23-17 triumph at McAfee Coliseum in Week 2 of last season. Oakland last defeated the Chiefs during the 2002 campaign, winning a 24-0 decision at home.
In addition to the regular season history, the teams have met three times in the playoffs, with Kansas City holding a 2-1 edge. The Raiders won a 1968 AFL Division Playoff, the Chiefs returned the favor with a 17-7 victory in the 1969 AFL Championship, and Kansas City also triumphed in a 1991 AFC First- Round Playoff.
Raiders head coach Art Shell is 2-11 against the Chiefs all-time, including 2-10 in his first stint with the franchise (1989-94). The Chiefs' Edwards is 4-4 against the Raiders, including playoff losses for his Jets to Oakland in both 2001 and 2002, and is 1-0 against Shell head-to-head.
CHIEFS OFFENSE VS. RAIDERS DEFENSE
It has been an eventful week for Chiefs running back Larry Johnson (1516 rushing yards, 36 receptions, 15 TD), who complained about the team's offensive approach in the wake of the loss to the Chargers, then was named to his second consecutive Pro Bowl on Tuesday. Johnson had a string of four consecutive 100-yard games snapped against San Diego, as he amassed 84 yards on 19 carries for the night. He ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards as Week 16 begins, behind only LaDainian Tomlinson (1626 yards). Johnson carried 31 times for 154 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders in Week 11, and has hit triple-digits in three of five career outings versus Oakland. Dee Brown (13 rushing yards) was Johnson's backup against the Chargers, rushing once for three yards.
The job of slowing Johnson will fall to an Oakland defense that ranks just 26th in the NFL against the run (134.1 yards per game), but has also faced more rushing attempts (33.4 per game) than any other team in the league. The Raiders are a more respectable 13th in yards per carry allowed (4.0). A young Oakland linebacking corps boasting Kirk Morrison (113 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) in the middle and Thomas Howard (93 tackles) and Sam Williams (44 tackles, 1 sack) on the flanks has been a team strength. Morrison had six tackles and a sack to lead that group against the Rams. A rotating group on the interior line has regularly featured Tommy Kelly (61 tackles, 3.5 sacks), Terdell Sands (40 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), and Warren Sapp (39 tackles). Sapp had three tackles and a sack in the St. Louis loss.
When Johnson complained about the team's offensive approach, he may have been talking about the work of an aerial game that ranks just 21st in the league (188.1 yards per game) and seems to lack a downfield threat. Quarterback Trent Green (1013 passing yards, 5 TD, 6 INT) slipped to 2-4 as a starter this season with the San Diego loss, completing 23-of-41 passes for 185 yards with an interception and failing to throw a touchdown pass for the fourth time in six starts. Tight end Tony Gonzalez (66 receptions, 5 TD) was Green's top target as usual, catching six passes for 53 yards, and No. 1 wideout Eddie Kennison (46 receptions, 3 TD) added 43 yards on his six grabs. Tight ends Kris Wilson (13 receptions, 3 TD) and Jason Dunn (4 receptions) had two receptions each, and No. 2 receiver Samie Parker (36 receptions) posted the team's only catch of longer than 20 yards, a 26-yard completion. Gonzalez and guards Brian Waters and Will Shields were all named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday, despite being part of a line that has allowed 36 sacks on the year, including six last week.
The Raiders continue to rank first in the NFL against the pass (151.6 yards per game), but are tied with the Colts for the fewest aerial attempts faced on the year (25.4 per game). Oakland does present problems with its pass rush, led by end Derrick Burgess (42 tackles, 11 sacks) and interior playmaker Sapp (8 sacks). Burgess is Oakland's only 2006 Pro Bowl selection, and Sapp leads all NFL interior linemen in sacks. In the secondary, cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (39 tackles, 7 INT, 1 sack) is having a Pro Bowl-caliber year (though he was snubbed from the AFC team), and fellow secondary members such as corner Fabian Washington (33 tackles, 4 INT) and safeties Michael Huff (68 tackles) and Stuart Schweigert (90 tackles) have done a credible job as well.
RAIDERS OFFENSE VS. CHIEFS DEFENSE
Like Johnson, Raiders quarterback Aaron Brooks (969 passing yards, 3 TD, 7 INT) voiced displeasure with his own team's direction earlier this week, hypothetically querying "What the [heck] have I gotten into?" Brooks dropped to 0-7 as a starter in 2006 following last week's loss to the Rams, failing to add a touchdown pass to the team's NFL-low total of seven on the year and being benched in favor of Andrew Walter (1451 passing yards, 3 TD, 11 INT) late in the game. Brooks, who was 11-of-19 for 98 yards with an interception, is expected to start this week. Top receiver Randy Moss (42 receptions, 3 TD) was unavailable last week due to an ankle injury, and is questionable for Sunday. No. 2 wideout Alvis Whitted (27 receptions) was lost for the season with a dislocated wrist suffered against St. Louis. Ronald Curry (46 receptions, 1 TD), who led the Raiders with nine catches for 87 yards last Sunday, could start opposite prodigal son Doug Gabriel (27 receptions, 3 TD), who caught two passes for 31 yards after being cut by the Patriots earlier in the week. Tight end Courtney Anderson (21 receptions, 2 TD) comes off a four- reception, 52-yard day. The Raiders continue to lead the NFL in sacks allowed, with 66.
Getting to Brooks will be a priority for the Chiefs this week, after Kansas City failed to register a single sack against Oakland in the Week 11 meeting. The Chiefs ranks near the bottom of the league with just 25 sacks on the year, but did get to Philip Rivers a couple of times last Sunday. Rookie end Tamba Hali (50 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT) had a sack and an interception, and tackle James Reed (33 tackles, 1 sack) broke through for a sack on a night that saw Rivers complete just 8-of-23 passes for 97 yards without a touchdown. Free safety Greg Wesley (57 tackles, 3 INT) had the secondary's only pick of Rivers, and cornerback Patrick Surtain (59 tackles, 1 INT) led the Kansas City defensive backs with six tackles. The Chiefs are 14th in the league against the pass (203.9 yards per game).
Raiders running back Justin Fargas (490 rushing yards, 1 TD) has received an extended chance to prove his value in the four games since LaMont Jordan (434 rushing yards, 2 TD, 10 receptions) was sidelined for the year with a knee injury, but the fourth-year-pro has failed to distinguish himself to any great degree. Fargas has not broken the 50-yard barrier in any of his starts, and has just one touchdown over that span. The USC product carried 12 times for 43 yards against the Rams' bottom-tier run defense last week. Backup ReShard Lee (52 rushing yards, 2 TD, 17 receptions) wasn't much better, with his seven touches totaling 22 yards on the afternoon. The Raiders are 28th in NFL rushing offense (94.2 yards per game), and their five rushing touchdowns are tied for the fewest in the league.
The Chiefs will be pleased to see the weak Raiders running game this week, just six days after facing probable NFL MVP Tomlinson and the San Diego ground attack. Tomlinson carved up the Chiefs for 199 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, with 100 or those yards coming on a pair of first-half scoring runs. The linebacking crew of Kawika Mitchell (95 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) in the middle and Derrick Johnson (61 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and Kendrell Bell (44 tackles, 1 sack) on the outside must be better this week. The group combined for 21 tackles in San Diego, but came up well short in the big-play department. Up front, tackles Reed and Ron Edwards (19 tackles, 2.5 sacks) appear to be fading after a quick start. Edwards did not have a tackle last week, the fourth time this season that has happened. The Chiefs are 19th in the NFL against the run (121.6 yards per game).
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Raiders played the Chiefs tough in the teams' last meeting, but that was long ago and far away, when Oakland looked like it still had a pulse. Shell's team has lost four more times since, and last week's performance against the Rams showed a franchise that looks much closer to calling it a season than coming out with pride in an effort to put together a win. Do the Raiders have the talent to beat the Chiefs? Absolutely, but talent has never been the issue on this team, coaching and desire have. Oakland doesn't have enough of either, which means consecutive loss number eight is imminent.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Chiefs 27, Raiders 10
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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends
We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS. Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned. For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go. As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190). Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet. For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction. On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later. Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick. Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com
New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors
Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season.
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls
Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times.
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons
Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season.
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers
In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS.
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”. With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit. Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.
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