Colts Carry New-Found Momentum into Houston

Football Betting Lines

12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts will attempt to move one step closer to securing a first-round playoff bye this Sunday at Reliant Stadium, where the AFC powerhouses visit a Houston Texans team they have owned in recent years.

The Colts earned a playoff spot when division-rival Jacksonville lost to Tennessee last Sunday, giving Indy the AFC South championship for the fourth consecutive year. Still, the Colts were hardly building up steam for a postseason run heading into Monday's matchup with the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals. Tony Dungy's club had lost three of its last four games and just had been steamrolled by the Jaguars one week earlier.

Indianapolis rebounded strongly from that sobering 44-17 defeat to Jacksonville, using a near-flawless performance from star quarterback Peyton Manning and a much-improved effort on defense to post an impressive 34-16 over the Bengals.

With the division title now sewed up, the Colts can focus on earning that all- important bye. A win on Sunday coupled with a Baltimore loss in Pittsburgh would clinch at least a No. 2 seed for Indianapolis.

The young Texans have long been out of the playoff picture, but an unprecedented victory over the mighty Colts would serve as sufficient proof that Houston, which endured a miserable 2-14 campaign a year ago, has been making strides under first-year head coach Gary Kubiak.

Judging by last week's performance against New England, however, that progress appears to be minimal. The Texans were dealt a 40-7 loss by the AFC East- leading Patriots, who held Houston to 198 total yards and forced struggling signal-caller David Carr into four interceptions.

SERIES HISTORY

The Colts have won all nine head-to-head meetings with the Texans all-time, including a 43-24 home triumph in Week 2. Indianapolis also swept home- and-homes against Houston in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005. Indianapolis was a 38-20 winner in last year's trip to Reliant Stadium.

Dungy is 9-0 against the Texans all-time, while Kubiak is 0-1 against both Dungy and the Colts as a head coach.

COLTS OFFENSE VS. TEXANS DEFENSE

Indianapolis owns the NFL's second-ranked offense in terms of total yards (382.3 ypg) and passing yards (272.9 ypg), while the Colts' 26.9 points per game average is fourth-best in the league. The unquestioned leader of the all- star unit is Manning, who received a well-deserved seventh consecutive Pro Bowl nod on Tuesday. The two-time league MVP leads the NFL with a 99.0 quarterback rating and 26 touchdown passes, while his 3,910 yards through the air is second only to New Orleans' Drew Brees this season. He's not the only Colt on offense that's headed to Honolulu, however. Marvin Harrison (82 receptions, 1,180 yards, 9 TD) and Reggie Wayne (77 receptions, 1,213 9 TD) are the best 1-2 receiver combination in the game, while sturdy center Jeff Saturday and standout tackle Tarik Glenn anchor a stout line that has allowed a league-low 15 sacks. The consistently-excellent Harrison was on the receiving end of three of Manning's four scoring tosses against the Bengals and is averaging seven catches and 120 yards over the last three weeks.

For Houston to have a chance on Sunday, its defense can't let Manning throw for 400 yards like he did in the Week 2 meeting between the teams. Cornerbacks Dunta Robinson (74 tackles, 2 INT) and Lewis Sanders had their hands full with Harrison and Wayne, who combined for 262 yards on 13 grabs that day, and Sanders has since been lost for the year with a broken hand. An already-thin secondary hopes to regain the services of free safety C.C. Brown (67 tackles, 1 sack), who missed the New England game with turf toe. The front seven doesn't often produce a lot of heat on enemy quarterbacks, as the Texans have managed a pedestrian 27 sacks on the season. Former No. 1 pick Jason Babin (25 tackles) leads Houston with five sacks in a situational role, while this year's top overall draft choice, end Mario Williams (40 tackles, 4.5 sacks) has shown flashes of being the dominant player that the organization envisioned. For the year, Houston stands 24th overall in passing yards (218.6 ypg).

Indy's running back tandem of Joseph Addai (917 rushing yards, 7 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (584 rushing yards, 5 TD) has been an effective complement to the Colts' pass-oriented attack. Both are quality receivers as well, as Addai has added 288 yards on 33 receptions, and Rhodes produced 245 yards on 35 grabs. Rhodes could see the bulk of the work on Sunday, after Addai hurt his ankle at the end of a season-long 41-yard run on Monday. The rookie, who amassed 82 yards on just 16 carries against Houston in September, is expected to be available, however. Indianapolis comes in listed 17th overall in rushing offense (109.4 ypg).

The Texans have shown improvement in stopping the run this season, considering the team was deplorable in that area last year, but their No. 20 league ranking (122.5 ypg) shows the defense is still far from being dominant. The biggest reason for the upgrade has been the very strong play of rookie middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans (137 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT), who looks like a future Pro Bowler, while weakside starter Marlon Greenwood (94 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is an underrated player. Houston could use an upgrade at tackle, however, where veteran Anthony Weaver (35 tackles, 1 sack) is playing out of position and Jaguars castoff Anthony Maddox (24 tackles, 1 sack) doesn't appear to be a long-term solution.

TEXANS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE

While Houston has had its moments on offense during the course of this campaign, the team still ranks in the bottom of the league in every major category, and the inconsistent play of Carr (2,518 yards, 10 TD, 11 INT) hasn't made any Texans fan forget that the organization passed on hometown hero Vince Young in April. The former No. 1 overall pick had a strong start to the season, highlighted by a 22-of-26, 219-yard, three-touchdown performance versus the Colts in Week 2, but he's been between mediocre to downright brutal in recent weeks. Carr has failed to throw for over 140 yards over the last three games and has tossed only one touchdown pass in a current eight-week stretch. While it's true that Houston's offensive line is still below average and its run game hardly frightens opponents, Carr does have some good weapons with which to work. Andre Johnson (97 receptions, 1,087 yards, 5 TD) is a top- flight wideout who is headed to his second Pro Bowl in three years, while 33- year-old Eric Moulds (55 receptions, 546 yards, 1 TD) remains a useful possession receiver. Rookie Owen Daniels (34 receptions, 352 yards, 5 TD) has been a pleasant surprise at tight end.

Teams haven't challenged Indianapolis a whole lot through the air this season, partly because the Colts do a good job defending the pass and pressuring the quarterback, and partly because they haven't been good against the run. Indy has yielded the second-fewest passing yards (155.8 ypg) in the NFL and gives up very few big plays downfield, as evidenced by the way the unit handled Carson Palmer and the Bengals' high-powered aerial attack on Monday. Cincinnati managed only 145 net passing yards despite the absence of the Colts' top three safeties, Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson (65 tackles, 1 INT) and Antoine Bethea (71 tackles, 1 INT) -- all of whom could be out again this week. Indianapolis compensated by relentlessly harassing Palmer, sacking the star quarterback four times and throwing off his timing countless others. End Dwight Freeney (25 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) was the star of the show, taking down Palmer three times and forcing three fumbles. The premier pass rusher teams with Robert Mathis (58 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) to form one of the game's most dangerous duos.

Houston's season-long search for a dependable running back may have finally come to an end, as Ron Dayne (459 rushing yards, 3 TD) has put together three straight strong games. The burly veteran rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries versus the Patriots and is averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per attempt over the last three weeks. Rookie Wali Lundy still holds the team lead with 473 rushing yards and four scores, but has been relegated to spot duty due to Dayne's emergence. The Texans come in ranked 24th in both rushing (100.0 ypg) and passing (180.9 ypg) yardage.

Dayne's recent success could continue against a Colts defense that is giving up a league-worst 173.4 yards per game on the ground and was brutalized for 375 rushing yards -- the second-highest total since the NFL merger in 1970 -- by the Jaguars two weeks ago. Indianapolis had a more focused effort on Monday, however, and limited Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson to 79 yards on 22 attempts. Weakside linebacker Cato June (126 tackles, 2 INT) has been the team's most active defender, while last week's switch of Rob Morris (43 tackles), who had seven stops against the Bengals, to the strong side appears to have added some stability. The club could really use Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT), a top-notch run-stopper, but the hard-nosed safety isn't expected to play as he continues to battle soreness in his surgically-repaired knee.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Indianapolis certainly looked impressive on Monday, but it is still a bit premature to believe the Colts have completely fixed the problems that plagued them during their recent spell. Keep in mind that Indianapolis has lost its last three road games, and is still vulnerable to teams that can consistently pound the ball on the ground. If Dayne has another effective day and Carr somehow remembers how to play like he did early in the season, the Texans will put up some points, because Johnson will be a handful for Indy's banged-up secondary. Still, Houston doesn't have the personnel to either keep up with or slow down the Colts' scary offense. Look for Indianapolis to be challenged early, then pull away late.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Texans 20