Vols set sights on Aztecs in first-round action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/18/2010 - Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In search of their first-ever NCAA Tournament win, the 11th-seeded San Diego State Aztecs take aim at the sixth- seeded Tennessee Volunteers in the first round at the Dunkin' Donuts Center. The survivor of this Midwest Regional pairing will tangle with either Georgetown or Ohio University in the second round on Saturday.

The Aztecs have won nine of their last 10 games and included in that run is a victory over UNLV in the Mountain West Tournament title game on Saturday. It marked the third MWC Championship for SDSU, which is making its sixth NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2006. The Aztecs however, have yet to advance past the first round, although they came close in an 87-83 loss to Indiana in their last appearance.

On the flip side, the Vols received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after they were thrashed by Kentucky, 74-45, in the semifinals of the SEC Championship on Saturday. That loss obviously hurt the team's seeding, as Tennessee is sixth despite 25 wins, including triumphs over Kansas and Kentucky, two No.1 seeds in this event. The Vols are making their 18th NCAA Tournament appearance and fifth straight. Tennessee is 13-18 all-time in the event, including a 9-7 mark in the first round.

Tennessee has won both prior meetings with SDSU on the hardwood, with the last clash coming back in 1988.

If the Aztecs are to spring the upset tonight they will have to do so behind stingy defense and solid rebounding. Those are two areas the team has fared well in, as SDSU is holding foes to 61.8 ppg, while outrebounding them by 6.7 rpg. Kawhi Leonard has recorded 15 double-doubles on the season and he paces SDSU with 12.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg and 45 steals. The MWC Freshman of the Year showed his dominance on the glass by ripping down a whopping 21 caroms in the tourney title game. Malcolm Thomas also provides help on the boards with 7.8 rpg and he even chips in with 11.0 ppg. Billy White tacks on 11.2 ppg and 4.4 rpg for SDSU, while D.J. Gay contributes 10.3 ppg and 3.2 apg.

The Vols are averaging 73.6 ppg, but not at the expense of any defense, as they are forcing 16.8 turnovers per game and holding opponents to just 39.4 percent shooting from the field. Wayne Chism and Scotty Hopson are tied for the team-lead in scoring at 12.5 ppg, with Chism is also ripping down a team- high 7.1 rpg and Hopson recording 34 steals. Bobby Maze adds 9.6 ppg and 3.0 apg to the rotation for Tennessee, while J.P. Prince logs 9.3 ppg and a team- high 52 steals.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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